10 clues for an unpredictable 2024-25 NBA season

• Get NBA League Pass TODAY >
If you’re searching for which teams will surprise and fall, what player will capture MVP, the winner of the Emirates Cup, the two teams in the NBA Finals, the last team standing and essentially everything that’ll happen between now and June … you won’t find it here or elsewhere.
That’s because the 2024-25 NBA season, like every other before it, throws us for loops along the way.
And that’s the beauty of basketball. You can crystal ball as much as possible and the only sure thing is Jayson Tatum won’t get benched again — the Paris Olympics are over.
Otherwise, welcome to another season of … shrugs?
This could be the season where Ben Simmons plays up to those summer workout videos. This could be the season where Mikal Bridges misses a game. This could be the season where Luka Dončić hugs a referee. This could be the season where LeBron James falls off the geriatric cliff.
Or maybe not.
There is a chance you’ll find these reasons to follow along the six-month journey: To measure the growth of Anthony Edwards and other young superstars; marvel at the small but dominant number of big men (Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, etc.); the continued shooting mastery of Stephen Curry even at his advanced age; and the attempts by 29 other teams (give or take) to solve the defending champion Celtics.
As such, here are 10 clues that might unlock some secrets of 2024-25 anyway:
The punishing rules regarding the salary cap, aprons, luxury and repeater tax have had this effect: Teams must draft, develop and keep.
Basically, grow organically. Roster construction now starts with drafting, then adding a few pieces, and then giving max contracts to the deserving. If you don’t draft well, you waste years and become the Washington Wizards.
Here’s the organic makeup of five contenders who will support or disprove this theory:
Orlando Magic (very high organic growth): Seven in the projected rotation were taken in the first round. Two, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, are foundational.
Oklahoma City Thunder (high): Sure, Kia MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came in a trade. Then there’s Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace, all home-grown.
Boston Celtics (somewhat high): Tatum and Jaylen Brown were first-round picks. Thank you very much, Nets and Sixers, who greased these picks with regrettable trades.
Philadelphia 76ers (medium): “The Process” was designed to build through the draft and while Joel Embiid is the only remaining evidence, the Sixers later selected Tyrese Maxey, so there’s that.
Phoenix Suns (low): Say hello to one of the few remaining Big 3s where only one (Devin Booker) is an original. Seeing how teams are rejecting this blueprint, say goodbye.
What team needs a championship? Well, 30 of them. But among those who realistically could win this season, who really, really needs one? The Knicks top that list.
This is a flagship franchise that, since winning its second and last title in 1973, endured lost decades, John Starks going chilly in Game 7, Reggie Miller and a neophyte GM named Phil Jackson among other soul-crushing developments.
Finally — they’re doing things right. Leon Rose might be the best team-builder in Knicks history. Tom Thibodeau can coach a bit. Jalen Brunson was sent from hoop heaven. Karl-Anthony Towns is a Knick? And in every which way, this roster has all the bases covered.
When is the last time someone pouted when they left the Knicks? Before Donte DiVincenzo, that is?
So if there’s any sympathy in this unforgiving basketball world, the Knicks will celebrate for the first time since the Yankees sold for $10 million and Marvin Gaye dropped “Let’s Get It On.” A parade down Broadway? Spike Lee says He’s Gotta Have It.
Ja Morant. Less than two years ago he was an up-and-coming big deal. Last year he played nine games and saw Gilgeous-Alexander take his spot. Morant’s shoulder and judgment are both healthy now and you suspect he’ll (a) be an All-Star, and (b) have Memphis in the mix. In his new Nike spot he says, “I always get up.” You doubt him?
The Ball Bros. LaMelo and Lonzo have made a lot of money. They haven’t played a lot of games. Blame injuries for this as last season the Balls combined to play 22 of 164 possible games (all by LaMelo). Multiple knee surgeries caused Lonzo to miss two straight seasons. He’ll be load-managed with a tight leash.

Klay Thompson. Last season with the Warriors he was hurt — feelings, that is. He lost his starting job, felt a loss of faith from the franchise, then coughed 0-for-10 in his final game for the Warriors. He’s now sharing the floor with Dallas playmakers (Dončić and Kyrie Irving) who’ll give him open looks galore.
Khris Middleton. The fate of the Bucks will partially rely on a core player who had both ankles repaired this summer.
Ben Simmons. He has reached the final year of That Contract, which means, given the obvious motivation, we’ll finally see the Ben Simmons who earned that deal … or someone who’ll never get another.
Paul George was the biggest name to change addresses last summer when essentially swapped Kawhi Leonard for Embiid. It was a major pickup for the Sixers, who added a missing two-way piece to give Embiid his best chance at a title (and maybe PG as well).
It’s also the fourth contending team for the 34-year-old, who made each better. So … how did they (he) come up short?
Pacers (Seven seasons): The franchise’s best player since Miller courageously overcame a gruesome right leg injury. But: His other misfortune was being bounced by Big 3 Miami three straight postseasons (including two East finals).
Thunder (Two seasons): His second year in OKC was epic — Kia MVP finalist, All-NBA first team, All-Defensive first team, career-high 28-point average, solid chemistry with Russell Westbrook. But: OKC never escaped the first round, losing to Utah when George went 2-for-16 in the elimination game. A season later, he and the Thunder got waved bye-bye by Damian Lillard.
Clippers (Five seasons): Leonard signed with the Clippers on the condition they trade for George. The Clippers were consistently winners and PG averaged 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4.5 assists in LA. But: Injuries, man.
Westbrook’s latest reinvention happens in Denver. It’s a bit of desperation for the Nuggets, who won a title two years ago but badly need a boost from a depleted bench to offset the rising threats in the West.
That goes double for Russ. Has any former MVP (2017) fallen so far, so fast? A year ago he set an unofficial NBA record for biggest pay cut ($46 million to $3 million). Here’s the steady regression since he turned 30 and left OKC in 2019:
Rockets (One year): After three straight first-round eliminations OKC turned the page and sent Russ to Houston. Russ had his lowest post-season scoring average and beefed with Rajon Rondo’s brother in the semifinals.
Wizards (One year): This was the last impactful season for Russ, who averaged a triple-double and breathed life into the Wizards.
Lakers (Two years): Los Angeles became his third team in three years. Eventually, he was demoted and his jump shot was broken (sub-30% from deep) along with any faith LeBron had in him.
Clippers (Two seasons): After briefly enjoying a playoff rush in his first season with the Clippers, his playing time dwindled to 22 minutes last season.
He’s the best team architect without a championship to his name, which could change soon. OKC president Sam Presti has the Thunder in great shape both today and tomorrow, a hard double to pull off.
Most teams are either years away from contending or sacrifice their future to win now. The Thunder are none of the above. OKC has potentially seven future first-rounders (not counting their own), two swaps (including the 2027 Clippers) and potentially 12 second-rounders (there are protections) in the next six years.
They’ll also start this season with one of the youngest rosters including an MVP finalist and coming off 57 wins.
With so many assets, OKC could be active at the trade deadline and get even better. Presti is a problem.
Folks who study these things are slotting the 2024 draft class before the opening tip. They say: Name the No. 1 pick, and after a few seconds of awkward silence they reply: Told you so.
We’ll see soon enough about Zacchaire Risacher and Zach Edey and Bub Carrington. They’ll need to be pretty tame collectively to beat:
• 2000 (Kenyon Martin No. 1 pick): Only three made an All-Star team, none more than once. Only Michael Redd made All-NBA. Eight never played a game.
• 2002 (Yao Ming). The injury draft. Foot injuries limited Yao to eight seasons. No. 2 Jay Williams crashed his motorcycle and was done after his rookie year. No. 6 Dajuan Wagner played 103 games and had half his colon removed because of health issues.
• 2013 (Anthony Bennett). Giannis Antetokounmpo went 15th. Michael-Carter Williams was Kia Rookie of the Year.
His record after Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Leonard is 191-280. He has missed the playoffs five straight seasons and won 22 games each of the last two.
Anyone else would’ve been dismissed but, of course, Gregg Popovich is not anyone else. He got a contract extension and a big raise from the Spurs during this slide.
So put Pop on your Hot Coaching Seat list at your own risk. If anyone has tenure in this business, it’s the all-time winningest coach. He’ll likely make his call regarding his future because any other scenario would be … uncomfortable.
Still, his time will end eventually. Will Victor Wembanyama be a winner before then?
Celtics-Bucks: The last two East teams to win a title is a matchup between the thriving and fading. Will the Celtics force the Bucks to rebuild around Giannis?
Knicks-Sixers: Their first round playoff series last spring was spirited. How Towns does against Embiid is key.
Cavs-Magic: Their seven-game series was perhaps the best pound-for-pound in the 2024 postseason. A pair of up-and-comers now trying to finish top-four.
Warriors-Kings: The last two years: Curry dropped 50 in a Game 7, the Kings romped in the SoFi Play-In Tournament by 24 in San Francisco.
Grizzlies-Thunder: Before the injuries and the Morant suspension, the Grizzlies were what the Thunder are now.
Suns-Wolves: Kevin Durant is a hero to Anthony Edwards, who swept him and the Suns anyway last spring.
Yes: Brown and Tatum are touching their prime.
No: The Knicks (see above) are catching their stride.
Yes: They have the best starting five in basketball.
No: Sixers have a better three?
Yes: They’re deep.
No: Have you seen Oklahoma City?
* * *
Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.